Play Bridge | 10 08 2018 | Hand 1 | ♠K87 ♥AKJ842 ♦A ♣T92

08 10, 2018 - Hand 1
K87_AKJ842_A_T92

40 Comments

  1. annettelarke says:

    Bid four and made 13 – ouch!
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P P
    P

  2. jan1 says:

    Same. Maybe should of asked for Aces.
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P P
    P

  3. bruniquel says:

    The potential was there for N/S to loose 2 club tricks even after a call for aces (if N had had 3 small clubs). I am therefore intrigued to see how many went for a small slam (and one even went for a grand slam). What was I missing in the bidding that might have helped achieve the hand’s full potential?!
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, strong notrump, strong twos.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P P
    P

    • hound says:

      @bruniquel . Although you are playing 4 card majors and I am playing 5card there exists a “double fit with both Majors. This by itself is a pretty powerful set up. The long suits can be used to take care of the pesky little cards in some manner -ruffing or discarding. The hand could also play as a Dummy reversal all depending on what exactly happens in the minors. There is always the possibility of some unusual distribution but the chances strongly favour this hand making Slam.
      Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
      Auction
      W N E S
      – 1 P 3
      P 4 P 4N
      P 5 P 6
      P P P

  4. colinjohn says:

    I went to 6H on a point count.
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 4N
    P 5 P 6
    P P P

  5. rahamrick says:

    I agree with @colinjohn . I think it is fairly obvious that slam is in the works. But since North has no Kings, I thought it safest to stop at 6 hearts — though we made 7.
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 6
    P P P

  6. gwendolinej says:

    What do Graeme and Tina think?
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 4N
    P 5 P 6
    P P P

  7. suec88 says:

    Fancy whimping out first time, doesnt matter if you are in hearts or spades both ways make 13 tricks, lovely hand.
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 7
    P P P

  8. suec88 says:

    7NT makes easily too!!
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 7N
    P P P

  9. janemart says:

    I thought when it came to point count, you should only count a singleton honour once (as a singleton or as a honour). I guess it’s different with a singleton Ace. To find North had one too was a bit of an unexpected bonus!
    So I’m content with 4 and a reminder to be bit braver in future.
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, strong twos.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P P
    P

  10. baygon2014 says:

    50:50 whether to finesse East or west for the Queen – made the wrong choice and was punished!
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 6
    P P P

  11. nmein says:

    With all 4 aces we were guaranteed to be able to get control on the first round. North had to have at least 4 more points on top of the 2 aces. So yes, it was certainly possible that the small slam was going to be unachievable, but seemed well worth trying for.
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4N
    P 5 P 6
    P P P

  12. carro88 says:

    It was the double fit suggested to try for slam. Ignored hints. Made 6H 1. Nice hands
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4N
    P 5 P 6
    P P P

  13. stevewehrle says:

    Nice way to start the day!! As with @colinjohn, I thought that we had a crack at slam with 30ish points, and the bale out to 5H was always available, so asked for Aces. When I got the missing 2, I went for small slam. Good fit with the singleton Aces, and the trumps split, which was reassuring. The question was on how to play the S’s…. I am sure that the odds are that they split 3:1, so that you shouldn’t play for the drop. I took the KS off the top (in case of a singleton QS) and then finessed W. The only way this fails is if QS and xS is in E. Of course, that’s precisely what happens…. Was that the best way of playing the cards, @tina, @graeme? I don’t follow @hound’s advice in saying ‘ruff the third round’ as I have 3 S’s in hand, and nowhere to discard one of them.
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 4N
    P 5 P 6
    P P P

    • graeme says:

      It’s close, @stevewehrle, but cashing AK is slightly better than cashing one honour then finessing. But it’s so close that there are normally more important clues available that will override the percentage play. Ruff some diamonds, ruff some clubs, see who follows, who shows out. Play a few hearts. Something normally shows up if you make life tough enough on the bad guys.

    • chance22 says:

      @stevewehrle

      Hi,

      You probably know that the missing queen with 9 cards is when the “eight ever, nine never” slogan kicks in (I managed to forget it today, and lost the finesse also). I have read that the chance of the drop succeeding is 53% (without any other info such as Graeme suggests finding). Somehow it helped to flesh out this 53% figure:

      — Chance of 2-2 split: 40.7%
      — Chance of 3-1 split: 49.7%
      — If split is 3-1, the chance of the singleton being the Queen is 49.7 / 4 = 12.4%
      — 40.7 plus 12.4 = 53.1%

      So, with no info, the drop should work 53.1% of the time.

      cc @zoomer2591

      Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos.
      Auction
      W N E S
      – 1 P 3
      P 4 P 4N
      P 5 P 5N
      P 6 P 6
      P P P

  14. delta says:

    Nice bid 6 made 13
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 6
    P P P

  15. jatoas says:

    While I think this is a good small slam, bidding 7 to me is silly. You have to get the Spades right and having played Bridge for the rent in the past. I am going to take the money in the solid 6!
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 6
    P P P

  16. sockstevens says:

    Agree that a slam was on after aces but a gamble on 7 so take etc money and run.
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 4N
    P 5 P 6
    P P P

  17. belindat says:

    But this only makes 13 if you go for the 2/2 split on the spades. i went for the finesse 🙁 and so made 12!
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 6
    P P P

  18. tomm24 says:

    @baygon2014 there’s a rule for finessing the queen 8 card suit ever 9 card suit never
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, strong twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P P
    P

  19. johng says:

    followed the hint against my better judgement and stopped in 4H making 13 tricks. Ouch!
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P P
    P

  20. chess says:

    Figured had to be close to slam so went for it. Tend to be bolder on the computer than with humans.
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 6
    P P P

  21. jb4400 says:

    Makes 7 if I played for a spade drop.
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 4N
    P 5 P 6
    P P P

  22. Ace asking got me to 6 hearts. 2 missing kings from ptn & I decided not to chance it. I felt comfortable & that for me is everything.
    I drew trumps quickly. I didn’t want a nasty surprise. All 13 fell into place.
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, strong notrump, strong twos.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 6
    P P P

  23. cgray says:

    Finally bid slam! I was pretty sure it was there based on the point count and good suits. What a fun hand. Also played for spade queen to drop, but was nervous about it.
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 6
    P P P

  24. wadkin37 says:

    wadkin37 Don’t know why I bothered to finesse for the Q instead of playing for the drop…and chose to finesse the wrong way. Also had a feeling that slam was there but partner could assess the hand value better than I so chickened out and stopped at 4s. Not a good way to
    begin the day. Should’ve played for the drop!
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 4N
    P 5 P 7
    P P P

  25. stevewehrle says:

    Is that right, @graeme?? I just googled probability odds in Bridge, and the mathematical odds of a 2-2 split, on 4 cards missing is 41%, compared with the odds of a finesse at 50%. If you take a top honour first, to protect against a singleton Q, then you add a few more %age points to the finesse odds. At least that was what I was always taught. Why do you favour playing for the drop?
    Having said that, I do appreciate, and agree, your advice to leave it awhile, whilst Xruffing.

    • graeme says:

      @stevewehrle,
      You can use the maths @chance22 kindly mentioned or look at it another way.
      If you finesse you’ll lose when the suit is 2-2 ( 41%) and the Queen is offside ( half of that 41% = 20.5 % ).
      If you go for the drop you’ll lose when the suit is 3-1 ( 50%) and the 3 is with right hand opponent ( half of the 50% = 25 %) and the Q is with the 3 card suit, not the singleton ( 75% of the 25% = about 18% )
      Finessing will lose to about 20% of combinations, going for the drop will lose to about 18% of combinations. Lose less by going for the drop.

    • graeme says:

      Oh, that doesn’t mean you’ll only lose to those combinations! It’s just a kind of reverse method of working things out to help explain it all. Just the odds of the suit breaking 2-2 or 3-1 isn’t enough to show the full picture. 🙂

  26. squarepeg61 says:

    Stopped in 6. Should have gone for the slam as I made seven.


    Bidding System: 5 card majors, strong notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 6
    P P P

  27. 32dwemce says:

    Great to have lots of points and have a successful go at slam, made 13 but never mind, it was fun to play.
    Bidding System: 5 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 6
    P P P

  28. ken2 says:

    2 hearts is forcing so why have so many people bid 3 hearts
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos, transfers.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P 4
    P 4 P 6
    P P P

  29. mariagee says:

    Yes, that’s what I would like to ask @ken2
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 2
    P 3 P P
    P

    • ken2 says:

      @mariagee as soon as partner opens 1 spade with your hand you know that you are going to game and probably slam, they either have 5 spades and 12 plus points or 4 spades and 15 points so when they support your hearts you know that you have a double fit and should at least look for slam
      Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, weak twos, transfers.
      Auction
      W N E S
      – 1 P 2
      P 3 P 4
      P 4 P 6
      P P P

  30. zeke10077 says:

    played to 6 hearts but finnesed the wrong way
    Bidding System: 4 card majors, weak notrump, strong twos.
    Auction
    W N E S
    – 1 P 3
    P 4 P 4N
    P 5 P 5N
    P 6 P 6
    P P P

  31. chance22 says:

    @stevewehrle

    Hey Steve,

    You wrote: “Interesting and helpful; thanks. I agree the mathematical probability rates, but one point – If you take one of the top honours off the top, before running the finesse, then you exclude the singleton Q from both sides of the equation. Then the odds of taking the finesse, at 50% exceed the 2:2 split odds of 41%, surely???”

    Thanks for bringing that up. I keep trying to get closer to actually understanding it all, so in response to your question, I laid out the possibilities after three of the four cards had been played. Two small ones had come out on the K, and now we are playing low over to our A-J. Another small one comes out. It looked to me like a 50:50 proposition. But then I remembered reading that there is a slightly greater chance that the Q is alone with East at that point because a specific 2-2 distribution is more likely than a specific 3-1 distribution (and there is only one specific 2-2 and one specific 3-1 left). Below is the explanation from Kitty Cooper that I remembered reading. I have not really grasped it (though I got a little closer today).

    After re-reading her explanation, I said, “What? 6.22% for 3-1 and 6.78% for 2-2???”

    But look at this: 6.22 plus 6.78 = 13
    6.22 / 13 = 47.8%
    6.78 / 13 = 52.2%

    This puts us close to the original 53% for the drop.

    SOURCE FOR THE ABOVE:
    Kitty Cooper (bridgeteaching site) September 5, 2010:

    “Everyone knows the adage ‘eight ever, nine never’ which refers to finessing for the queen of trumps….

    “It is true that when you are missing four cards, a 3-1 split is more likely than a 2-2 split. However a specific 2-2 split is more likely than a specific 3-1. When you cash the Ace and lead towards the KJ and everyone follows, there are only two possible cases left, the 3-1 where the queen is finessable and the 2-2 where the queen is dropping. Read on for a fuller explanation of why the 2-2 is more likely.

    Each division of the cards does not have equal probability. Once the first card of a suit is dealt to a hand the probability of various distributions has already changed. A way to think about it is imagine that you have 4 marbles which roll down a chute and then fall randomly to the right or left. Once the first marble has fallen, next time they will be 2-0 or 1–. Then the next marble creates a 3-0 or 1-2 or 2-1, or 0-3. You can see that the possibilities for the final marble are limited by what has happened with the first three.

    The actual probability of a single 2-2 (of which there are six) is 6.78% and a single 3-1 (of which there are eight) is 6.22%. Finally the two cases of 4-0 are 4.78%. And those are your 16 cases. Note that 6 times 6.78 is 40.68% which is the probability of a 2-2. 6.22 x 8 = 49.76.

    “This explains why you play from the drop missing Queen fourth of a suit….

    “…play for the drop unless other distributional information changes the odds. For example the probabilities change if you know from a preempt that seven of the ‘marbles’ in one hand are diamonds, there is less room in that hand for other ‘marbles’. Now the 3-1 (and the 4–) are more likely with the preemptor having the shortness.”

    cc @zoomer2591

    P.S. I just read how @Graeme described it from what we lose vs. what we win. I will give that some attention, for sure.

    P.P.S. I think if you respond through the e-mail link, your post doesn’t show up in the hand comments.

  32. stevewehrle says:

    @chance22 – Hello Matey!!

    A really comprehensive and very helpful response. More than I deserve. Thanks so much.

Leave a Reply